June 2010

The Jerseys we had brought home. Initially, I was thinking to myself that we had made a big mistake buying the little brown cows. They milked about 65 percent of what our Holsteins did. The first is whether, historically, NFL teams have done a good job of predicting which college quarterbacks will succeed in the pros. Dave Berri and Rob Simmons’ paper in the Journal of Productivity Analysis (that I relied on in the essay “Most Likely to Succeed” in my new book “What The Dog Saw”) proves pretty convincingly, I think, that the answer is no. One of the best parts of that paper is how Berri and Simmons demonstrate how much NFL teams tend to irrationally over weight “combine” variables like speed, height and Wonderlic score..

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